Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville is urging Democrats to remain realistic about Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances in the 2024 election, warning that President Donald Trump has a history of exceeding polling expectations. Appearing on CNN’s “The Lead with Jake Tapper,” Carville cautioned Democrats against becoming overconfident, noting that Trump’s performance in key battleground states has consistently outstripped what polls predicted.
Carville emphasized that while Harris may hold a slim lead nationally, Trump’s edge in critical swing states could be decisive. “President Trump runs, he overperforms his polling averages,” Carville said, pointing out that Trump’s unexpected victories in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were key to his 2016 win. Even in 2020, Trump’s strength in battleground states nearly led to another upset.
Another challenge Harris faces, according to Carville, is the Electoral College. Given the distribution of Trump’s support, Harris would need a popular vote win of nearly three points to secure an Electoral College majority. Carville warned Democrats to remain grounded and avoid celebrating prematurely. “Stop being giddy all the time,” he urged, stressing that the road to victory is far from guaranteed.
Carville’s concerns echo those of other Democratic commentators, including CNN’s Van Jones, who noted the race remains tight despite Harris’s recent media boost. As the campaign heads into its final stretch, Carville’s message is clear: Democrats must prepare for a close race and not underestimate Trump’s ability to defy the polls once again.
