Nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan stand on the brink of armed conflict after a deadly attack in Kashmir triggered diplomatic expulsions, closed borders, and the unprecedented suspension of a vital water-sharing treaty.
At a Glance
- India suspended the crucial Indus Waters Treaty after a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir killed 29 people, with India blaming Pakistan-backed terrorists
- Pakistan responded by expelling Indian diplomats, closing borders, cancelling visas, and suspending the 1972 Shimla peace accord
- Pakistan warned that any disruption to its water supply under the treaty would be considered “an act of war”
- Both nuclear powers have closed airspace to each other’s aircraft and halted trade as diplomatic relations collapse
- Kashmir police named three suspected militants in the attack, claiming two are Pakistani nationals
Kashmir Attack Ignites Diplomatic Crisis
The attack in Pahalgam, described as the deadliest on civilians in Kashmir since 2000, has pushed the two nuclear-armed neighbors toward their most serious confrontation in years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to pursue those responsible, stating boldly: “I say to the whole world, India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers.” The Indian government has explicitly blamed Pakistan for supporting what it terms “cross-border terrorism,” a charge Pakistan vehemently denies.
India’s response has been swift and severe. Modi called an emergency meeting with opposition parties to discuss the government’s response, closed key land borders with Pakistan, and barred Pakistani citizens from entering under a visa exemption scheme. Most critically, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a 1960 agreement mediated by the World Bank that has survived multiple wars between the two nations and is essential for Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
Pakistan’s Retaliatory Measures
Pakistan’s reaction has been equally dramatic, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office announcing the expulsion of Indian military representatives: “Pakistan declares the Indian defence, naval and air advisers in Islamabad persona non grata. They are directed to leave Pakistan immediately.” This aggressive diplomatic move was accompanied by the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian aircraft and the cancellation of visas for Indian nationals, effectively severing most remaining connections between the two countries.
“Any threat to Pakistan’s sovereignty and to the security of its people will be met with firm reciprocal measures in all domains” – office of the prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif.
The Pakistani government has also suspended the Shimla accord, a peace treaty signed with India in 1972 following their war over Bangladesh’s independence. Pakistan’s National Security Committee issued a stark warning regarding India’s suspension of the water treaty, declaring that any attempt to stop or divert water flowing to Pakistan “will be considered as an act of war and responded [to] with full force across the complete spectrum of national power.”
Water as a Weapon
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty represents a particularly dangerous escalation. The treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers that flow from India into Pakistan and is absolutely critical for Pakistan’s agriculture, power generation, and daily life. Pakistan relies on these waters to irrigate 80% of its cropland, making the treaty’s suspension during the agricultural sowing season particularly devastating to Pakistan’s already fragile economy.
“Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty … will be considered as an act of war and responded [to] with full force across the complete spectrum of national power” – National Security Committee.
Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, has promised immediate retaliation should India proceed with water restrictions, stating “There will be a tit-for-tat reply, and not an iota less than they have done.” This confrontation comes at a particularly vulnerable time for Pakistan, which was already facing significant economic challenges and sees the water treaty as non-negotiable for its national security and survival.
Disputed Territory at the Center
The current crisis has its roots in the long-standing dispute over Kashmir, a predominantly Muslim-majority region that both countries have claimed since the partition of British India in 1947. Tensions had already been elevated since 2019, when India revoked Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status. Kashmir police have named three suspected militants involved in the recent attack, claiming that two are Pakistani nationals, further inflaming accusations of state-sponsored terrorism.
Pakistan denies any involvement in the attack and has instead accused India of supporting terrorism within Pakistani borders. With both nations possessing nuclear arsenals and maintaining large conventional military forces along their shared border, the international community watches with growing concern as diplomatic channels shut down and threats of military action increase. The unraveling of decades-old treaties suggests this confrontation may prove more dangerous than previous cycles of tension between the longtime adversaries.
