Kamala Harris is facing a challenging path to the presidency as her polling numbers fall short of the benchmarks set by Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in their races against President Donald Trump. According to Real Clear Polling (RCP) data from August 31, 2024, Harris leads Trump by only 1.8 points nationally — a margin that is notably smaller than the 6.3-point lead Biden held in 2020 and the 4.6-point lead Clinton had in 2016 at the same time.
This slim lead is cause for concern among Democrats, particularly because Trump has a history of outperforming polls, as he did in 2016 when he secured an Electoral College victory despite trailing Clinton in national polls. Harris’s current position suggests that the race could come down to the wire in key swing states.
The Electoral College projections from RCP show Harris with a narrow two-vote lead, highlighting the tightness of the contest. With swing states likely to be decisive, Harris’s narrow national lead could easily be overtaken if Trump manages to outperform expectations in those critical areas.
Harris’s campaign has also been criticized for its lack of visibility. To date, she has participated in only one significant interview as the Democratic nominee, where she attempted to address concerns about her past policy shifts. Despite her efforts, her ranking as the most left-leaning Senator in 2019 continues to be a hurdle in gaining broader support.
As the general election approaches, Harris will need to overcome these challenges and build on her slim lead if she hopes to succeed where Clinton fell short in 2016.
